BYU's Playoff and Big 12 Title Outlook After the Utah Loss: What the Cougars Need Now

BYU didn't lose its season at Rice-Eccles Stadium, but it lost its grip on it. The No. 9 Cougars (in the first College Football Playoff rankings, before the game) fell 28-20 at No. 3 Utah on Nov. 7, dropping to 7-2 overall and 4-2 in the Big 12. National outlets now describe a team that needs three wins and help from other teams to reach either the conference title game or the 12-team playoff. We covered the game itself in our Utah 28, BYU 20 recap. This article is about what comes next.

The short version

Those percentages are one outlet's model, not a ruling by the committee or the conference. Treat them as a gauge of direction more than a forecast. ESPN's projections, as reported by Heartland College Sports, gave Utah a 93% chance to reach the Big 12 title game and a 90% chance at the playoff. That article did not publish ESPN's numbers for BYU.

What changed in the Big 12 race

Before kickoff, BYU was in the mix with Utah and Texas Tech. Now Utah sits alone at the top as the conference's only unbeaten team, per Heartland College Sports. Pro Football Network reports that Texas Tech has one conference loss and that BYU "no longer controls its own path" to the title game in Arlington on Dec. 4.

That is the key phrase. Winning out would give BYU a 7-2 conference record, but where it finishes depends on what Utah and Texas Tech do. CBS Sports' Tom Fornelli wrote on Nov. 6, before the game, that a BYU loss to Utah would mean BYU needs Texas Tech to lose at least once more to reach the title game. Heartland College Sports likewise said BYU will likely need help from contenders including Texas Tech.

On tiebreakers, we're limited to what we've read. In an Oct. 25 CBS Sports piece on the Big 12 race, the outlet said that if Utah or BYU ended up tied with Texas Tech, the conference would use common-opponent tiebreakers. We did not find a current, published tiebreaker breakdown for the post-Utah standings, so we're not going to guess at one. The Big 12 Conference's official standings and tiebreaker rules are the place to check as the weeks go on.

What the committee said first

The first CFP rankings came out on Nov. 3. The Deseret News listed Utah at No. 3 (8-0), the highest CFP ranking in Utah program history, and BYU at No. 9 (7-1). Three other Big 12 teams were in the top 25: Texas Tech at No. 15 (7-1), Houston at No. 17 (6-2) and Arizona at No. 22 (6-2).

Reaction to that list was part of the story before the game was played. In its "Anxiety Rankings" column on Nov. 6, CBS Sports' Fornelli ranked BYU No. 2 in Week 10's anxiety list, meaning among the teams with the least room for error. He called BYU's win over Notre Dame one of the best wins of the season, but argued it doesn't carry enough weight to overcome what he saw as a bad loss at UCF. The Cougars lost that game 39-31 in double overtime on Oct. 24, according to BYU Athletics. The Deseret News also said the UCF loss seemed to concern the committee.

Fornelli added that the committee ranked Texas Tech behind six Big Ten and SEC teams with two losses, which he read as a sign that the committee isn't impressed with the Big 12 as a whole. He wrote that the league once looked likely to send two or even three teams to the playoff and that BYU's UCF loss and Texas Tech's loss to Cincinnati changed that.

We don't yet have the second set of rankings, so we can't say how far BYU slid. The Washington Post's headline for its Saturday story, as carried in search results, listed BYU at No. 7 in a poll. Outkick's headline called BYU No. 9 going into the game. Rankings differ by poll, so wait for the committee's next release before reading much into the number.

What BYU still has

The Cougars have three regular-season games left, all listed on BYU Athletics' schedule page with times and TV networks to be announced.

Pro Football Network's analysis says BYU needs three straight wins plus help elsewhere in the Big 12. It adds that at 10-2 the Cougars could still make an at-large case, but their playoff odds depend on things breaking their way. Fornelli's pre-game column made a similar point: after a loss to Utah, BYU would have to beat Baylor, Kansas and Cincinnati, and even that might not be enough.

One note on the Kansas game. Pro Football Network says BYU has never beaten Kansas. We couldn't verify that line of history independently, so take it as that outlet's claim. What we can say from the schedule is that Lawrence is BYU's only road game left.

Cincinnati is one to watch for a second reason. The Bearcats' win over Texas Tech on Oct. 24 is one reason the Big 12 race got tighter, per CBS Sports. Cincinnati finishes the season in Provo.

Why Utah's win matters beyond the standings

Utah is the story in the other direction. Its three remaining regular-season games were not listed in the Heartland article, which only noted that three remain. CBS Sports' Fornelli did point out that Arizona, ranked No. 22 in the first committee list, plays Utah, and that Arizona's ranking helps both BYU and Texas Tech. He suggested another Arizona loss would drop it out of consideration quickly.

For BYU fans, the practical effect is straightforward. The Cougars can no longer win the league by winning their games alone. They need the teams ahead of them to stumble, and the committee has already shown it will weigh the UCF loss.

What to do if you're planning around the games

If you have tickets or plans for the Baylor game, our BYU football game day guide and parking guide cover getting to LaVell Edwards Stadium. Kickoff time and TV network for Nov. 14 had not been announced at the time of writing, so check BYU Athletics before you finalize anything. Our BYU football tickets guide covers buying and reselling, and where to watch sports in Provo lists places to catch road games like Kansas.

For the long view, the rivalry returns to Provo next year; see the BYU football 2027 schedule, and for background on the series see the Holy War rivalry, explained.

What we couldn't confirm

A few things are not settled, and we would rather say so than fill the gap. We did not find a published Big 12 tiebreaker scenario for the post-Utah standings. We did not see the committee's second rankings, which come out later. We could not read the full text of The Washington Post's Saturday analysis, which blocked our access. And the percentages above come from Pro Football Network and ESPN's projections as reported by others, which don't always agree.

Related

• Utah 28, BYU 20: the game recap
• BYU vs. Utah 2026 game guide
• BYU football 2026 season preview
• BYU football game day
• BYU football parking
• BYU football tickets guide
• The Holy War rivalry, explained
• BYU football 2027 schedule
• Where to watch sports in Provo
• BYU hosts Baylor Saturday: 1:30 p.m. kickoff on FOX and interim coach Klanderman